Annual Meeting of the NCI Cohort Consortium (Abstract Submission): Submission #12

serial: '12'
sid: '150986'
uuid: 5a0af86a-7692-40dd-8c18-8a6e978698c6
uri: /egrp/cohortconsortium/abstracts
created: '1757061205'
completed: '1757061660'
changed: '1757061660'
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langcode: en
webform_id: cohort_2024_abstracts_submission
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metatag: meta
data:
  additional_authors:
    - add_author_degree: Ph.D.
      add_author_first_name: 'Magdalena '
      add_author_last_name: Cedzynska
      add_author_middle: ''
      add_author_organization: 'Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology in Warsaw, Poland'
    - add_author_degree: M.A.
      add_author_first_name: Irena
      add_author_last_name: Przepiorka
      add_author_middle: ''
      add_author_organization: 'Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology in Warsaw, Poland'
    - add_author_degree: 'M.D. Ph.D.'
      add_author_first_name: Martin
      add_author_last_name: Lajous
      add_author_middle: ''
      add_author_organization: 'National Institute of Public Health in Mexico'
  degree_s_: Ph.D.
  email: marta.manczuk@nio.gov.pl
  first_name: Marta
  last_name: Manczuk
  organization: 'Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology in Warsaw, Poland'
  poster_title: 'Smoking cessation and all-cause and cancer-specific mortality in Poland: A target trial emulation'
  short_biography_: |
    Background 
    In Poland, 25% of adults are daily smokers. Estimating the impact of smoking cessation on mortality in the absence of randomized trials is critical to achieve the tobacco endgame (smoking prevalence <5%). 

    Methods
    We emulated a target trial to estimate the effect of smoking cessation on all-cause and cancer mortality, comparing current and former smokers from the Polish Cohort Study (PONS; n=13,148 women and men) at baseline in 2010. We estimated the 12-year risk difference (RD) using pooled logistic regression models, weighting participants by the inverse probability of treatment to address confounding by age, marital status, sex, education, alcohol, smoking years, and physical activity and inactivity. We constructed cumulative incidence curves under smoking and smoking cessation and stratified analyses by sex. 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated using bootstrapping.

    Results
    Among 2,482 current and 4,258 former smokers, 636 deaths and 260 cancer deaths occurred. The 12-year mortality risk for current smokers was 12.6% (95%CI 11.3, 14.1) and for former smokers 7.8% (95%CI 6.9, 8.7). The RD was -4.9 percentage points (95%CI -6.7, -3.3). For men, the corresponding RD was -8.2 percentage points (95%CI -12.6, -4.8) and for women -3.5 (95%CI -5.6, -1.6). The 12-year cancer mortality risk for current smokers was 5.7% (95%CI 4.7, 6.8) and for former smokers 3.1% (95%CI 2.4, 3.6). The RD was -2.6 percentage points (95%CI -4.0, -1.4).  

    Conclusion
    Our estimates suggest that smoking cessation in Poland significantly reduces the absolute risk of mortality, and that quitting tobacco smoking may be particularly impactful in men. 
  title: 'Associate Professor'