Annual Meeting of the NCI Cohort Consortium (Abstract Submission): Submission #12

Submission information
Submission Number: 12
Submission ID: 150986
Submission UUID: 5a0af86a-7692-40dd-8c18-8a6e978698c6

Created: Fri, 09/05/2025 - 04:33
Completed: Fri, 09/05/2025 - 04:41
Changed: Fri, 09/05/2025 - 04:41

Remote IP address: 10.208.28.165
Submitted by: Anonymous
Language: English

Is draft: No
Presenter's First Name: Marta
Presenter's Last Name: Manczuk
Title (eg: professor, assistant professor, chair, etc): Associate Professor
Degree(s) Ph.D.
Contact Email: marta.manczuk@nio.gov.pl
Organization: Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology in Warsaw, Poland
Project Title: Smoking cessation and all-cause and cancer-specific mortality in Poland: A target trial emulation
Additional Authors
  1. First Name: Magdalena
    Last Name: Cedzynska
    Degree(s): Ph.D.
    Organization: Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology in Warsaw, Poland
  2. First Name: Irena
    Last Name: Przepiorka
    Degree(s): M.A.
    Organization: Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology in Warsaw, Poland
  3. First Name: Martin
    Last Name: Lajous
    Degree(s): M.D. Ph.D.
    Organization: National Institute of Public Health in Mexico
Abstract: Background
In Poland, 25% of adults are daily smokers. Estimating the impact of smoking cessation on mortality in the absence of randomized trials is critical to achieve the tobacco endgame (smoking prevalence <5%).

Methods
We emulated a target trial to estimate the effect of smoking cessation on all-cause and cancer mortality, comparing current and former smokers from the Polish Cohort Study (PONS; n=13,148 women and men) at baseline in 2010. We estimated the 12-year risk difference (RD) using pooled logistic regression models, weighting participants by the inverse probability of treatment to address confounding by age, marital status, sex, education, alcohol, smoking years, and physical activity and inactivity. We constructed cumulative incidence curves under smoking and smoking cessation and stratified analyses by sex. 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated using bootstrapping.

Results
Among 2,482 current and 4,258 former smokers, 636 deaths and 260 cancer deaths occurred. The 12-year mortality risk for current smokers was 12.6% (95%CI 11.3, 14.1) and for former smokers 7.8% (95%CI 6.9, 8.7). The RD was -4.9 percentage points (95%CI -6.7, -3.3). For men, the corresponding RD was -8.2 percentage points (95%CI -12.6, -4.8) and for women -3.5 (95%CI -5.6, -1.6). The 12-year cancer mortality risk for current smokers was 5.7% (95%CI 4.7, 6.8) and for former smokers 3.1% (95%CI 2.4, 3.6). The RD was -2.6 percentage points (95%CI -4.0, -1.4).

Conclusion
Our estimates suggest that smoking cessation in Poland significantly reduces the absolute risk of mortality, and that quitting tobacco smoking may be particularly impactful in men.